Eksplorasies in 'n postnormale landskap : Suid-Afrika duskant en anderkant Covid-19
Date
2020-12
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Suid-Afrikaanse Akademie vir Wetenskap en Kuns
Abstract
Die Covid-19-pandemie is aanvanklik gekenmerk deur lewensbedreigende griepagtige infeksies, maar later het grootskaalse beheergedrewe ontwrigting die toon begin aangee. Die inperkingsmaatreëls vir infeksiebeheer het mense van hul werkplek, hul vriende, hul familie en hul ontspanningsgeriewe afgesny. Voorsieningskettings het verbrokkel, sakeondernemings het ineengeval en werkloosheid het toegeneem. Die uiteindelike maatskaplike en ekonomiese gevolge hiervan is vandag onpeilbaar en dit bring groot verwarring mee: dit is 'n golf van verandering wat nie beheer kan word nie; dit kan hoogstens verstaan en gestuur word. Deur terugskouing en nadenke het mense skielik begin besef dat daar reeds dekades gelede waarskuwings gepubliseer is oor die moontlikheid van ontwrigtende globale griepagtige pandemies. Waarom is tóé nie daarop ag geslaan nie? 'n Tweede vraag is waarom het hierdie pandemie die bestaande wereldorde sodanig ontwrig dat mense sukkel om oplossings daarvoor te vind. Drie toekomsnavorsers by die internasionale Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies beskryf die Covid-19-pandemie as 'n "perfekte postnormale storm" en voeg daarby dat ons vandag in "postnormale tye" leef. Hierdie artikel gebruik enkele aspekte van hulle navorsing om die Covid-19-ontwrigting te verklaar en ook van toepassing te maak op die Suid-Afrikaanse situasie. Die voortstuwende ontwrigting wat Covid-19-beheermaatreëls veroorsaak het, is in wese kompleks sistemies. Dit is 'n groot uitdaging om kompleks sistemiese verandering te verstaan vanuit gevestigde gespesialiseerde kennis ("kognitiewe tuisland"). Dit vereis eers die erkenning van "onoorwinlike onkunde" in die gevestigde denkpatrone en dat ou denke daarom vervang moet word deur nuwe denke: 'n eksplorasie in die denklandskappe van wêreldbeskouings, paradigmas, waardes, mites, metafore en perspektiewe. Die rol van geleide selforganisasie deur die bestuur van sogenaamde "vreemde aanlokkers" (strange attractors) word bespreek. In 'n maatskaplik-ekonomiese omvorming kan onder meer inligtingsbestuur, waardebestuur en leerprosesse aanleiding gee tot nuwe kollektiewe insigte, paradigmaskuiwe en nuwe wêreldbeskouings, wat as "vreemde aanlokkers" vir geleide selforganisasie kan dien.
The initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was felt through its life-threatening flu-like infections that caused the death of tens of thousands of people around the world, but an even more serious and enduring effect evolved from the lock-down strategies of governments to contain the infections. It caused mass disruptions in the social and economic life of nations and communities: people were isolated from friends, family and their recreation facilities, businesses went bankrupt, supply chains crumbled, and unemployment increased. The ultimate economic and social consequences of this policy-driven destruction of global systems are unfathomable. They confuse people, causing a feeling of hopelessness and incompetence in their search for solutions to the policy-initiated spillover problems they have to face. They are faced with an uncontrollable wave of change, the nature of which they can only try to understand, and which, it is hoped, will lead to a more desirable future outcome. When they reflected on the emergence of the pandemic, people suddenly became aware of a number of warnings issued since the 1990s about the likelihood of a Covid-19-type flu-like pandemic that would ravage the world. Why were these warnings ignored? Moreover, why did this pandemic become so utterly disruptive that people now struggle to find solutions to it? Three futurists at the international Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies describe the Covid-19 pandemic as a “perfect postnormal storm” in “post-normal times”. This paper uses aspects of their research to explain the disruptive effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, applying them to the South African situation. The wave of disruptions that were caused by pandemic control is in essence complex systemic. It is very difficult to understand complex systemic change if traditional thinking and established systems of specialised knowledge (the so-called “cognitive homeland”) are used. What is required is, first, to acknowledge a state of “invincible ignorance” in established thinking: an acknowledgement that established thinking must be replaced with new thinking. This requires an exploration of the “manufactured normalcy field”, which refers to the thought systems that reaffirm normalcy despite major shifts in circumstances. Such an exploration covers, among other things, inquiries into the underpinnings of the “manufactured normalcy field”, contrasting worldviews, paradigms, values, metaphors, and perspectives. The possible impact of “strange attractors” to guide a process of self-organisation in complex systemic change is also important to consider. Such “strange attractors” can emerge from information management, values management, heuristic learning designs which may usher in shifts in collective insights, paradigm shifts and new worldviews. South Africans are often reminded that Covid-19 created a new normal which requires them to adapt their outlook on life and their lifestyles. In fact, this country’s pre-Covid-19 world was far from normal – since the 1990’s South Africans have been living an unsettled life in an unsettled country. In other words, for thirty years they have been trapped in a state of limbo of post-normal times, the nature of which is described by the Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies as “an in-between period where the old ways are dying and new ways have yet to be discovered”.
The initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was felt through its life-threatening flu-like infections that caused the death of tens of thousands of people around the world, but an even more serious and enduring effect evolved from the lock-down strategies of governments to contain the infections. It caused mass disruptions in the social and economic life of nations and communities: people were isolated from friends, family and their recreation facilities, businesses went bankrupt, supply chains crumbled, and unemployment increased. The ultimate economic and social consequences of this policy-driven destruction of global systems are unfathomable. They confuse people, causing a feeling of hopelessness and incompetence in their search for solutions to the policy-initiated spillover problems they have to face. They are faced with an uncontrollable wave of change, the nature of which they can only try to understand, and which, it is hoped, will lead to a more desirable future outcome. When they reflected on the emergence of the pandemic, people suddenly became aware of a number of warnings issued since the 1990s about the likelihood of a Covid-19-type flu-like pandemic that would ravage the world. Why were these warnings ignored? Moreover, why did this pandemic become so utterly disruptive that people now struggle to find solutions to it? Three futurists at the international Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies describe the Covid-19 pandemic as a “perfect postnormal storm” in “post-normal times”. This paper uses aspects of their research to explain the disruptive effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, applying them to the South African situation. The wave of disruptions that were caused by pandemic control is in essence complex systemic. It is very difficult to understand complex systemic change if traditional thinking and established systems of specialised knowledge (the so-called “cognitive homeland”) are used. What is required is, first, to acknowledge a state of “invincible ignorance” in established thinking: an acknowledgement that established thinking must be replaced with new thinking. This requires an exploration of the “manufactured normalcy field”, which refers to the thought systems that reaffirm normalcy despite major shifts in circumstances. Such an exploration covers, among other things, inquiries into the underpinnings of the “manufactured normalcy field”, contrasting worldviews, paradigms, values, metaphors, and perspectives. The possible impact of “strange attractors” to guide a process of self-organisation in complex systemic change is also important to consider. Such “strange attractors” can emerge from information management, values management, heuristic learning designs which may usher in shifts in collective insights, paradigm shifts and new worldviews. South Africans are often reminded that Covid-19 created a new normal which requires them to adapt their outlook on life and their lifestyles. In fact, this country’s pre-Covid-19 world was far from normal – since the 1990’s South Africans have been living an unsettled life in an unsettled country. In other words, for thirty years they have been trapped in a state of limbo of post-normal times, the nature of which is described by the Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies as “an in-between period where the old ways are dying and new ways have yet to be discovered”.
Description
CITATION: Spies, P. & Jones, C. 2020. Eksplorasies in 'n postnormale landskap : Suid-Afrika duskant en anderkant Covid-19. Tydskrif vir Geesteswetenskappe, 60(4-2):1132-1149, doi:10.17159/2224-7912/2020/v60n4-2a2.
The original publication is available at http://tgwsak.co.za
The original publication is available at http://tgwsak.co.za
Keywords
COVID-19 (Disease)
Citation
Spies, P. & Jones, C. 2020. Eksplorasies in 'n postnormale landskap : Suid-Afrika duskant en anderkant Covid-19. Tydskrif vir Geesteswetenskappe, 60(4-2):1132-1149, doi:10.17159/2224-7912/2020/v60n4-2a2.