An integrated, spatio-temporal modelling framework for analysing biological invasions
Date
2018
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Wiley
Abstract
Aim: We develop a novel modelling framework for analysing the spatio-temporal
spread of biological invasions. The framework integrates different invasion drivers and
disentangles their roles in determining observed invasion patterns by fitting models to
historical distribution data. As a case study application, we analyse the spread of common
ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia).
Location: Central Europe.
Methods: A lattice system represents actual landscapes with environmental heterogeneity.
Modelling covers the spatio-temporal
invasion sequence in this grid and integrates
the effects of environmental conditions on local invasion suitability, the role of
invaded cells and spatially implicit “background” introductions as propagule sources,
within-cell
invasion level bulk-up
and multiple dispersal means. A modular framework
design facilitates flexible numerical representation of the modelled invasion processes
and customization of the model complexity. We used the framework to build and contrast
increasingly complex models, and fitted them using a Bayesian inference approach
with parameters estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
Results: All modelled invasion drivers codetermined the A. artemisiifolia invasion pattern.
Inferences about individual drivers depended on which processes were modelled
concurrently, and hence changed both quantitatively and qualitatively between models.
Among others, the roles of environmental variables were assessed substantially
differently subject to whether models included explicit source-recipient
cell relationships,
spatio-temporal
variability in source cell strength and human-mediated
dispersal
means. The largest fit improvements were found by integrating filtering effects of the
environment and spatio-temporal
availability of propagule sources.
Main conclusions: Our modelling framework provides a straightforward means to
build integrated invasion models and address hypotheses about the roles and mutual
relationships of different putative invasion drivers. Its statistical nature and generic
design make it suitable for studying many observed invasions. For efficient invasion
modelling, it is important to represent changes in spatio-temporal
propagule supply by
explicitly tracking the species’ colonization sequence and establishment of new
populations.
Description
CITATION: Mang, T., et al. 2018. An integrated, spatio-temporal modelling framework for analysing biological invasions. Diversity and Distributions, 24(5):653-665, doi:10.1111/ddi.12707.
The original publication is available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The original publication is available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Keywords
Ambrosia artemisiifolia -- Analysis, Biological invasions -- Europe, Introduced organisms, Alien plants -- Dispersal, Global environmental change, Spatial analysis (Statistics), Invasive plants -- Effect of habitat modification on
Citation
Mang, T., et al. 2018. An integrated, spatio-temporal modelling framework for analysing biological invasions. Diversity and Distributions, 24(5):653-665, doi:10.1111/ddi.12707