Temperature variability and occurrence of diarrhoea in children under five-years-old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorMusengimana, Gentilleen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMukinda, Fidele K.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMachekano, Rodericken_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMahomed, Hassanen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-15T10:29:13Z
dc.date.available2016-09-15T10:29:13Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.descriptionCITATION: Musengimana, G., et al. 2016. Temperature variability and occurrence of diarrhoea in children under five-years-old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(9):1-12, doi:10.3390/ijerph13090859.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
dc.descriptionPublication of this article was funded by the Stellenbosch University Open Access Fund.
dc.description.abstractThis paper describes the relationship between temperature change and diarrhoea in under five-year-old children in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area (CTMA) of South Africa. The study used climatic and aggregated surveillance diarrhoea incidence data of two peak periods of seven months each over two consecutive years. A Poisson regression model and a lagged Poisson model with autocorrelation was performed to test the relationship between climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature) and incidence of diarrhoea. In total, 58,617 cases of diarrhoea occurred in the CTMA, which is equivalent to 8.60 cases per 100 population under five years old for the study period. The mixed effect overdispersed Poisson model showed that a cluster adjusted effect of an increase of 5 °C in minimum and maximum temperature results in a 40% (Incidence risk ratio IRR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.31–1.48) and 32% (IRR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.22–1.41) increase in incident cases of diarrhoea, respectively, for the two periods studied. Autocorrelation of one-week lag (Autocorrelation AC 1) indicated that a 5 °C increase in minimum and maximum temperature led to 15% (IRR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.09–1.20) and 6% (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12) increase in diarrhoea cases, respectively. In conclusion, there was an association between an increase in minimum and maximum temperature, and the rate at which diarrhoea affected children under the age of five years old in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area. This finding may have implications for the effects of global warming and requires further investigation.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/9/859
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent12 pages
dc.identifier.citationMusengimana, G., et al. 2016. Temperature variability and occurrence of diarrhoea in children under five-years-old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(9):1-12, doi:10.3390/ijerph13090859
dc.identifier.issn1660-4601 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.3390/ijerph13090859
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/99656
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright
dc.subjectTemperatureen_ZA
dc.subjectDiarrhoeaen_ZA
dc.subjectClimateen_ZA
dc.subjectInfectious diseasesen_ZA
dc.titleTemperature variability and occurrence of diarrhoea in children under five-years-old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districtsen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
musengimana_temperature_2016.pdf
Size:
1.12 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download article
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.95 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
B - Editors