Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

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dc.contributor.authorSeebens, Hannoen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBacher, Svenen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBlackburn, Tim M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCapinha, Cesaren_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDawson, Wayneen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDullinger, Stefanen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGenovesi, Pieroen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHulme, Philip E.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVan Kleunen, Marken_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKuhn, Ingolfen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorJeschke, Jonathan M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLenzner, Bernden_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLiebhold, Andrew M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPattison, Zarahen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPergl, Janen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPysek, Petren_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWinter, Martenen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorEssl, Franzen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-30T10:36:56Z
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-27T11:38:16Z
dc.date.available2021-07-30T10:36:56Z
dc.date.available2021-08-27T11:38:16Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionCITATION: Seebens, H. et al. 2021. Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.15333.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com
dc.description.abstractBiological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business‐as‐usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back‐casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon–continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
dc.description.uriPublisher's version
dc.format.extent13 pages
dc.identifier.citationSeebens, H.; Bacher, S.; Blackburn, T.M.; Capinha, C.; Dawson, W.; Dullinger, S.; Genovesi, P.; Hulme, P.E.; van Kleunen, M.; Kühn, I.; Jeschke, J.M.; Lenzner, B.; Liebhold, A.M.; Pattison, Z.; Pergl, J.; Pyšek, P.; Winter, M.; Essl, F. (2021). Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global Change Biology 27, 970-982. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15333.
dc.identifier.citationSeebens, H. et al. 2021. Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.15333.
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1111/gcb.15333
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/121029
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright
dc.subjectBiodiversityen_ZA
dc.subjectBiological invasionsen_ZA
dc.subjectAlien species richnessen_ZA
dc.subjectBiodiversity -- Effect of human beings onen_ZA
dc.subjectAlien species -- Population regenerationen_ZA
dc.titleProjecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050en_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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