Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa

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dc.contributor.authorCalitz, Estianen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSiebrits, Krigeen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorStuart, Ianen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-27T13:26:12Z
dc.date.available2017-10-27T13:26:12Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.descriptionCITATION:Calitz, E., Siebrits, K. & Stuart, I. 2016. Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 19(3):330-343, doi:10.4102/sajems.v19i3.1142.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://sajems.org
dc.description.abstractThe accuracy of the National Treasury's projections of GDP and key fiscal aggregates is comparable to that of the projections of private sector economists, other reputable organisations and the fiscal authorities of other countries. The errors in the projections of the National Treasury have nonetheless been substantial in some years, and have increased from 2000/01 to 2010/11. This paper argues that the credibility of fiscal policy would have been severely tested if the largest annual errors in respect of the various aggregates had coincided. Against this backdrop, the paper makes the case for structured bi-annual discussions of government’s forecasts during public parliamentary hearings as a mechanism for improving the accuracy and credibility of official projections. It also discusses the potential benefits for South Africa of two alternative mechanisms, namely fiscal councils and committees of independent experts.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://sajems.org/index.php/sajems/article/view/1142
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent14 pages ; illustrations
dc.identifier.citationCalitz, E., Siebrits, K. & Stuart, I. 2016. Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 19(3):330-343, doi:10.4102/sajems.v19i3.1142
dc.identifier.citation2222-3436 (online)
dc.identifier.citation1015-8812 (print)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.4102/sajems.v19i3.1142
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/102402
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherAOSIS Publishing
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright
dc.subjectFiscal projections -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectFiscal policy -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectFinance, Public -- Forecasting -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectEconomic forecasting -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectFiscal transparency -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectNational Treasury (South Africa)en_ZA
dc.titleEnhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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