The Suwalki GAP dilemma : a strategic and operational analysis

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dc.contributor.authorScholtz, Leopolden_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-08T07:34:00Z
dc.date.available2020-10-08T07:34:00Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionCITATION: Leopold, S. 2020. The Suwalki GAP dilemma : a strategic and operational analysis. Scientia Militaria, South African Journal of Military Studies, 48(1):23-40, doi:10.5787/48-1-1293.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at http://scientiamilitaria.journals.ac.za
dc.description.abstractThis article reports on a theoretical analysis about a series of events that will hopefully never take place. Should Russia ever decide to invade the Baltic republics, the obvious invasion route would be from Russian territory into Estonia and Latvia, and perhaps also from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad into Lithuania. Authoritative war games have found that Russian forces could reach the three Baltic capitals within 36–60 hours. NATO has decided on a counterstrategy, stationing 5 000 troops in the three republics and Poland, as well as establishing a rapid reaction force of 13 000 troops, capable of being at the front in a week. Nevertheless, this article argues that this is probably insufficient. These troops will have to move through the so-called Suwalki Gap (80 kilometres wide) between Kaliningrad and Belarus, a close Russian ally, which could be closed by a determined Russian push. The article ends with a war scenario, which shows that any clash could rapidly escalate into a general war.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://scientiamilitaria.journals.ac.za/pub/article/view/1293
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent18 pages
dc.identifier.citationLeopold, S. 2020. The Suwalki GAP dilemma : a strategic and operational analysis. Scientia Militaria, South African Journal of Military Studies, 48(1):23-40, doi:10.5787/48-1-1293
dc.identifier.issn2224-0020 (online)
dc.identifier.issn1022-8136 (print)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.5787/48-1-1293
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/108863
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherStellenbosch University, Faculty of Military Science (Military Academy)
dc.rights.holderStellenbosch University, Faculty of Military Science (Military Academy)
dc.subjectSuwalki GAP dilemmaen_ZA
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic Treaty Organizationen_ZA
dc.subjectNATOen_ZA
dc.subjectLithuania-Poland borderen_ZA
dc.subjectRussia (Federation) -- Warfareen_ZA
dc.subjectBaltic states -- History -- Invasionsen_ZA
dc.subjectMilitary offences -- Baltic statesen_ZA
dc.subjectEuropean defensesen_ZA
dc.titleThe Suwalki GAP dilemma : a strategic and operational analysisen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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