Towards the development of a probabilistic approach to informal settlement fire spread using ignition modelling and spatial metrics

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dc.contributor.authorCicione, Antonioen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGibson, Lesleyen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWade, Colleenen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSpearpoint, Michaelen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWalls, Richarden_ZA
dc.contributor.authorRush, Daviden_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-14T06:43:36Z
dc.date.available2021-04-14T06:43:36Z
dc.date.issued2020-11-15
dc.descriptionCITATION: Cicione, A. et al. 2020. Towards the development of a probabilistic approach to informal settlement fire spread using ignition modelling and spatial metrics. Fire, 3(4):67, doi:10.3390/fire3040067.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://www.mdpi.com
dc.description.abstractENGLISH ABSTRACT: Large conflagrations of informal settlements occur regularly, leaving thousands of people homeless daily and taking tens of thousands of lives annually. Over the past few years, a large amount of data has been collected from a number of full-scale informal settlement fire experiments. This paper uses that data with a semi-probabilistic fire model previously proposed by the authors, to illustrate the potential applications of the fire spread method proposed. The current model is benchmarked against a 20-dwelling full-scale informal settlement fire experiment, and the effects of the (a) ignition criteria, (b) wind direction, and (c) wind speeds on the predicted fire spread rates are investigated through the use of a parametric study. Colour maps of the fire spread rates and patterns are then used to visually interpret the effects of different types of fire scenarios and fire breaks. Finally, the fire spread capability within B-RISK is used to derive a linear equation for the potential fire spread rate as a function of the settlement spatial metrics (e.g., density and distance to nearest neighbour). To further illustrate the potential application of this work, the fire spread rate equation is then applied across the whole of Cape Town, South Africa, to show the 10 informal settlement areas most at “risk” of large conflagrations.en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipLloyd’s Register Foundation
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
dc.description.sponsorshipRoyal Fire Academy of Engineering / Lloyd’s Register Foundation
dc.description.urihttps://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/4/67
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent26 pagesen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationCicione, A. et al. 2020. Towards the development of a probabilistic approach to informal settlement fire spread using ignition modelling and spatial metrics. Fire, 3(4):67, doi:10.3390/fire3040067.
dc.identifier.issn2571-6255 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.3390/fire3040067
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/109773
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherMDPIen_ZA
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyrighten_ZA
dc.subjectInformal settlements (Squatter settlements) -- Firesen_ZA
dc.subjectFire preventionen_ZA
dc.subjectSpatial metricsen_ZA
dc.subjectFires -- Prevention and controlen_ZA
dc.titleTowards the development of a probabilistic approach to informal settlement fire spread using ignition modelling and spatial metricsen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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