The financial implications of regenerative agriculture in the Southern Cape and the subsequent impact on future animal and winter cereal crop production
| dc.contributor.advisor | Hoffmann, Willem H. | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Strauss, Johann | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.author | Hayward, Clinton Todd | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.other | Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. | en_ZA |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-03-09T16:30:43Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-04-21T14:38:15Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-03-09T16:30:43Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-04-21T14:38:15Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-03 | |
| dc.description | Thesis (MAgricAdmin)--Stellenbosch University, 2021. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | ENGLISH SUMMARY : Dryland farming systems in the Southern Cape are largely reliant on external inputs to function in a financially feasible manner. In recent years, the prices of key farming inputs have begun to put financial pressure on farming systems in the Southern Cape. A trial was recently started in the Southern Cape to assess soil regeneration and the impact thereof on future crop and livestock production. The trial was used as a point of reference in this study to simulate potential production scenarios. Regenerative agriculture shares selected principles with other farming practices such as conservation agriculture (CA) but emphasises biomimicry over external inputs. The aim of this study is to conduct explorative research on the financial implications of future regenerative farming practices in the Southern Cape. A proposed result of the long-term implementation of regenerative farming practices in the Southern Cape is the establishment of agricultural practises that are well adapted to internalise the impacts of changing weather patterns and harmful farming practises. The explorative nature of this study was well suited to the use of simulation modelling where hypothetical changes can be made to the typical conservational farming system in the Western Rûens homogenous farming area, to gain insight into the possibilities surrounding purely regenerative farming practices. A multidisciplinary group discussion was held to incorporate expert knowledge and producer experience on possible production scenarios concerning various purely regenerative farming practices. The concept of the typical farm was applied as a theoretical tool to simulate various production scenarios that CA-like farming systems in the Western Rûens homogenous farming area may face when converting to purely regenerative farming practices. A whole farm multi-period budget model was constructed based on information collected by a local business, during the group discussion and various direct communications. The net profit value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) are indicators of whole-farm profitability and were used to conduct the relevant financial assessments. Four scenarios based on regenerative principles were assessed according to the financial implications imposed on the IRR and NPV of a typical farm. Scenario planning was used to apply the various changes to the initial state of the typical farm and to assess the financial implications of a percentage change in the IRR and NPV on whole-farm profitability in the subsequent state. The initial state of the typical farm simulated had an IRR of -3.22% and an NPV of -R66 405 812.70. An annual reduction of 10% in the amount of inorganic nitrogen applied, a carrying capacity of 5.5 SSU/ha, a sliding feed scale and a crop/livestock ratio of 70/30 were the most profitable changes made to the typical farm over a period of 20 years. Changes made to the machine inventory had a negative effect on whole-farm profitability. The accumulative changes made to the typical farming system had a positive effect on whole-farm profitability. The IRR and NPV of the typical farm in its subsequent state was -2.29% and -R64 372 818.85 respectively. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Droëland boerdery stelsels in die Suid-Kaap maak grootliks staat op eksterne insette om in ʼn finansieel haalbare manier te funksioneer. Gedurende die afgelope jare het die prys van sleutel boerdery insette toenemende finansiële druk op boerdery stelsels in die Sui-Kaap geplaas. ʼn Proef is onlangs begin in die Suid-Kaap om grond regenerasie te assesseer asook die impak daarvan op toekomstige gewas en lewendehawe produksie. Die proef is gebruik as vertrekpunt vir hierdie studie ten einde verskillende produksie scenario’s te simuleer. Regenerasie landbou deel geselekteerde beginsels met ander boerdery praktyke soos bewaringsboerdery, meer fokus op die die mimiek van die biologiese komponent bo eksterne insette. Die doel van die studie is om ondersoekende navorsing toe te pas op die finansiële implikasies van toekomstige regenererende boerdery praktyke in die Suid-Kaap. ʼn voorgestelde resultaat van die langtermyn implementering van regenererende boerdery praktyke in die Suid-Kaap is die vestiging van van landbou praktyke wat goed aangepas is om die impak van veranderende weersomstandighede en skadelike praktyke te oorkom. Die ondersoekende aard van die studie is ideaal vir die gebruik van simulasie modellering waar hipotetiese veranderinge aangebring kan word aan ʼn tipiese bewaringsboerdery stelsels wat tans in die Westelike Rûens gebruik word om insig te verkry aangaande die moontlikhede van die implementering van suiwer regenererende boerdery praktyke. ʼn Multidissiplinêre groepbespreking is gehou om ekspert kennis te inkorporeer in moontlike produksie scenario’s aangaande suiwer regeneratiewe boerdery praktyke. Die konsep van tipiese boerdery is toegepas as teoretiese hulpmiddel ten einde die verskillende produksie scenario’s te simuleer wat produsente van bewaringsboerdery stelsels in die Westelike Rûens mag uitdaag indien hulle omskakel na suiwer regeneratiewe stelsels en praktyke. ʼn Geheel plaas multi-periode begrotings model is opgerig baseer op inligting ingesamel via plaaslike agribesighede, gedurende die groepbesprekings en deur verskeie direkte mededelings. Die netto huidige waarde (NHW) en die interne opbrengskoers op kapitaal investering (IOK) is die maatstawwe van geheel plaas winsgewendheid vir die relevante finansiële assesserings. Vier scenario’s baseer op regeneratiewe beginsels is geassesseer na gelang van finansiële implikasies soos gemeet aan die NHW en die IOK vir die tipiese plaas. Scenario beplanning is toegepas om die verskillende veranderinge op die aanvanklike status van die plaas te assesseer as ʼn persentasie verandering op NHW en IOK op die gevolglike status. Die aanvanklike status van die tipiese boerdery wys ʼn IOK van -3.22% en NHW van -R66 405 812.70. ʼn Jaarlikse afname van 10% in die hoeveelheid anorganiese stikstof kunsmis, ʼn drakrag van 5.5 kleinvee eenhede/ha en ʼn voedingsglyskaal van die gewas/weiding stelsels na 70/30 was die mees winsgewende veradnringe wat aangebring kon word op die tipiese plaas oor ʼn 20 jaar periode. Die geakkumuleerde effek van die veranderinge wys ʼn positiewe effek op die verwagte geheel plaas winsgewendheid. Die IOK en die NHW vir die tipiese plaas in die gevolg toestand was onderskeidelik -2.29% en -R64 372 818.85. | af_ZA |
| dc.description.version | Masters | en_ZA |
| dc.format.extent | xiv, 104 pages ; illustrations, includes annexures | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/110054 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_ZA | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University | |
| dc.rights.holder | Stellenbosch University | |
| dc.subject | Organic farming -- Finance -- Western Cape (South Africa) | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Agricultural conservation | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Arid regions agriculture -- Western Cape (South Africa) | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Winter wheat -- Western Cape (South Africa) | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Animal culture -- Western Cape (South Africa) | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Soil restoration -- Western Cape (South Africa) | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | UCTD | |
| dc.title | The financial implications of regenerative agriculture in the Southern Cape and the subsequent impact on future animal and winter cereal crop production | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_ZA |