Natural hazards in a changing world : a case for ecosystem-based management

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dc.contributor.authorNel, Jeanne L.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLe Maitre, David C.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorNel, Deon C.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorReyers, Belindaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorArchibald, Sallyen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVan Wilgen, Brian W.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorForsyth, Greg G.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorTheron, Andre K.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorO’Farrell, Patrick J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKahinda, Jean-Marc Mwengeen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorEngelbrecht, Francois A.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKapangaziwiri, Evisonen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVan Niekerk, Laraen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBarwell, Laurieen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-03T12:14:33Z
dc.date.available2016-03-03T12:14:33Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.descriptionCITATION: Nel, J. L. et al. 2014. Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management. PLos ONE, 9(5):e95942, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095942.en_ZA
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at http://journals.plos.org/plosoneen_ZA
dc.description.abstractCommunities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0095942
dc.description.versionPublisher's versionen_ZA
dc.format.extent12 pages : illustrations, mapen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationNel, J. L. et al. 2014. Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management. PLos ONE, 9(5):e95942, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095942.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095942
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/98253
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherPLoSen_ZA
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyrighten_ZA
dc.subjectEcosystem-based managementen_ZA
dc.subjectNatural hazards mitigationen_ZA
dc.subjectNatural hazards -- Effect of climate change onen_ZA
dc.subjectLand cover changeen_ZA
dc.subjectLand use managementen_ZA
dc.titleNatural hazards in a changing world : a case for ecosystem-based managementen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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