Using a system dynamics modelling process to determine the impact of eCar, eBus and eTruck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa

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dc.contributor.authorPillay, Nalini Sooknananen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBrent, Alan Colinen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMusango, Josephine Kavitien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVan Geems, Francoisen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-12T10:05:04Z
dc.date.available2022-01-12T10:05:04Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionCITATION: Pillay, N. S., et al. 2020. Using a system dynamics modelling process to determine the impact of eCar, eBus and eTruck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa. Energies, 13(3):575, doi:10.3390/en13030575.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://www.mdpi.com
dc.descriptionPublication of this article was funded by the Stellenbosch University Open Access Fund
dc.description.abstractENGLISH ABSTRACT: The complexities that are inherent in electricity value chains are non-linear in nature and they require unconventional modelling methods, such as system dynamics. This paper provides an overview of the system dynamics method applied for obtaining an understanding of the impact of electric-bus, -car, and -truck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa, through the development of the electric mobility simulator (eMobiSim). Two scenarios were tested. The World Reference scenario was based on a market penetration of 22% eCars, 19% eTrucks, and 80% eBuses and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scenario was based on 2.38% eCars, 1.79% eTrucks, and 12% eBuses. The results indicate that the World Reference scenario is the most optimistic, with a 12.33% decrease in carbon emissions in the transport sector and an increase of 4.32% in the electricity sector. However, if the economic structure that is specific to South Africa is to be considered and the GDP scenario is run, then there would only be a 1.77% decrease of carbon emissions in the transport sector and an increase of 0.64% in the electricity sector. Although the eCar market penetration produces the highest reduction in carbon emissions, the volumes that are required are large and other factors, such as price parity and affordability in the various income deciles, would have to be considered in determining whether this volume is achievable.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/3/575
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent18 pagesen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationPillay, N. S., et al. 2020. Using a system dynamics modelling process to determine the impact of eCar, eBus and eTruck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa. Energies, 13(3):575, doi:10.3390/en13030575
dc.identifier.issn1996-1073 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.3390/en13030575
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/124062
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherMDPIen_ZA
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyrighten_ZA
dc.subjectElectric vehicle industry -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectBehavior, Consumeren_ZA
dc.subjectCarbon emissionen_ZA
dc.subjectSustainable engineeringen_ZA
dc.titleUsing a system dynamics modelling process to determine the impact of eCar, eBus and eTruck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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