Exponential damping : the key to successful containment of COVID-19

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dc.contributor.authorZhang, Fengen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Jinmeien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCao, Menglanen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Yongen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHui, Cangen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-10T06:42:10Z
dc.date.available2021-02-10T06:42:10Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-08
dc.descriptionCITATION: Zhang, F. et al. 2021. Exponential damping : the key to successful containment of COVID-19. Frontiers in Public Health, 8:580619, doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.580619.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://www.frontiersin.org
dc.description.abstractDue to its excessive capacity for human-to-human transmission, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has now been declared a global public health emergency. Here we propose a simple model based on exponential infectious growth, but with a time-varying, largely damping, transmission rate. This model provides an excellent fit to the existing data for 46 countries with 10,000+ cases by 16 May 2020, five continents and the entire world. Hence, the model has largely captured the transmission patterns of the COVID-19 outbreak under a variety of intervention and control measures. The damping rate ranged from −0.0228 to 0.1669 d−1 globally (a negative damping rate represents acceleration in spread) and can greatly affect the duration of the outbreak and the eventual number of infections. Our model suggests that it is possible to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic by the end of 2020 through achieving a high damping rate (0.0615 d−1). However, the global damping rate is rather low (0.0504 d−1 before 26 April) and has dropped even further since late April (0.0168 d−1). Easing currently implemented control measures in countries with weak or no damping in transmission could lead to an exponential rebound of COVID-19 spread.en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Science Foundation of Anhui (2008085MC62), Anhui University (No. S020118002/101)
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31360104)
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation of South Africa (grant 89967)
dc.description.urihttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.580619/full
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent8 pages
dc.identifier.citationZhang, F. et al. 2021. Exponential damping : the key to successful containment of COVID-19. Frontiers in Public Health, 8:580619, doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.580619.
dc.identifier.issn2296-2565 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.580619
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/109544
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherFrontiers Media
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright
dc.subjectCOVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Mathematical modelsen_ZA
dc.subjectSpread of COVID-19 -- Dampingen_ZA
dc.subjectDamping rate of infectious diseases -- Mathematical modelsen_ZA
dc.titleExponential damping : the key to successful containment of COVID-19en_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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