Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes : experience across IPBES assessments

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dc.contributor.authorSitas, Nadiaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHarmackova, Zuzana V.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorAnticamara, Jonathan A.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorArneth, Almuten_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBadola, Ruchien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBiggs, Reinette, 1979-en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBlanchard, Ryanen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBrotons, Lluisen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCantele, Matthewen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCoetzer, Kaeraen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDasGupta, Rajarshien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorden Belder, Eefjeen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Sonalien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGuisan, Antoineen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGundimeda, Haripriyaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHamann, Maikeen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHarrison, Paula A.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHashimoto, Shizukaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHauck, Jenniferen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKlatt, Brian J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKok, Kasperen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKrug, Rainer M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorNiamir, Aidinen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorO'Farrell, Patrick J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorOkayasu, Sanaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPalomo, Ignacioen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPereira, Laura M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorRiordan, Philipen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSantos-Martín, Fernandoen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSelomane, Odirilween_ZA
dc.contributor.authorShin, Yunne-Jaien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorValle, Mireiaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-06T06:43:13Z
dc.date.available2021-09-06T06:43:13Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.descriptionCITATION: Sitas, N., et al. 2019. Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments. Ecology and Society 24(3). doi:10.5751/ES-11039-240335
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/
dc.description.abstractScenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipSwedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA)
dc.description.urihttps://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol24/iss3/art35/
dc.description.versionPublisher’s version
dc.format.extent25 pages
dc.identifier.citationSitas, N., et al. 2019. Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments. Ecology and Society 24(3). doi:10.5751/ES-11039-240335
dc.identifier.issn1708-3087 (print)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.5751/ES-11039-240335
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/122995
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherResilience Alliance
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain rights
dc.subjectAssessmenten_ZA
dc.subjectBiodiversity -- Law and legislationen_ZA
dc.subjectDecision makingen_ZA
dc.subjectEcosystem services -- Managementen_ZA
dc.subjectFuturesen_ZA
dc.subjectNature -- Conservationen_ZA
dc.subjectScenario archetypes -- Analysisen_ZA
dc.subjectScenarios -- Analysisen_ZA
dc.titleExploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes : experience across IPBES assessmentsen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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