Department of Civil Engineering

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Browsing Department of Civil Engineering by Subject "(HLTA) Hybrid Lighter Than Air"

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    Quantification of transport demand of hybrid lighter than air in Rwanda through stated preference methods
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-03) Rwunguko, Jean d'Amour; Johann, Andersen; Mahabudul, Bari; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Civil Engineering.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Today, development of innovative modes of transport is taking place in order to accelerate the economic growth of transport users as well as reducing the environmental pollution, through an improved transport system. These new transport modes are associated with advances in modern technologies that are able to provide solutions to different problems in the transport industry of developing countries. This research was motivated by the cost reduction and environmental benefits, accruing from the use of new technology of Hybrid Lighter Than Air (HLTA) transport mode. The intention then, was to evaluate the modes choice preference of transport users in the case where the HLTA is introduced in Rwanda. The new mode of HLTA is believed to make a contribution in solving transport challenges stemming from the fact that Rwanda is a landlocked country. The landlockedness is associated with lack of access to seaports, remoteness and isolation from major markets. This continues to impede the development of the country and the problem is exacerbated by the fact that, road transport mode dominates the transport operations in Rwanda. From an economic point of view, road transport causes high transport economic costs for both passengers and freight, and increases, to a large extent, environmental pollution. In order to achieve the transport users’ modes choice preferences, this study has developed and used an efficient survey design process of Stated Preference. Drawing from current literature, Stated Preference is an accurate tool for data collection of studies that relate to choice preferences. This technique made it possible to design questionnaires by hypothetically creating choice games using three attributes; i.e. In Vehicle Travel Time, Waiting Time and Travel Cost for available alternative modes of transport. Thereafter, the collection of data took place by interviewing the transport users of three routes that accommodate heavy traffic in the study area, Rwanda. The SPSS version 21 computer programme was used to analyse mode choice preference data and then for a matter of checking the results, STATA S/E 11.1 was used. Among the results, these computer programmes reported coefficients of attributes and these were applied in the Binomial logistic regression mathematical structure in the model building process. The model refinement and validation processes that followed, have suggested a removal of Waiting Time from the explanatory variables. This was due to poor performance that Waiting Time has demonstrated in terms of prediction and significance. Then, magnitudes of utilities of models were determined based on the two remaining variables. The choice probability value of each alternative on different routes was calculated; and thus transport demand of each mode was quantified. According to the results, transport users in Rwanda would prefer and use HLTA in case it starts operating. For both cargo and passenger transport, HLTA was chosen above other modes set into choice process, with probabilities of 79.7%, 86.1%, and 58% for HLTA-Passenger on long, medium and short routes respectively and 71%, 56% and 77% for HLTA-Cargo on long, medium and short route respectively. The passenger transport volume share of HLTA-Passenger projected in the year 2014 was found to be 6269256 passengers against a total annual passenger traffic demand of 7941752 passengers on the three routes considered. The annual freight volume of HLTA-Cargo was 10947921 tonnes against a total of 16935637 tonnes on all the routes considered. These high demand volumes of HLTA were due to high choice probabilities which in turn, were due to small values of attributes that HLTA has got compared to those of other modes. It is, therefore, proposed that more research should be conducted to study the viability of HLTA use in Rwanda. While doing so, such studies should consider issues of economic viability, environmental benefit research and other studies engaging demand data, since these data items would be published as the main results of this current work.