Browsing by Author "Van Zyl Engelbrecht, Francois"

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    Impacts of industrial crops on food security in Swaziland, Tshaneni: a system dynamics approach
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2018-03) Van Zyl Engelbrecht, Francois; Brent, Alan C.; Musango, J. K.; De Kock, Imke; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tshaneni, Swaziland has seen a prolific expansion in the cultivation of industrial crops over the last two decades. The effect of these industrial crops on local and regional food security is unclear. This is because there are multiple drivers of food security in the region. Drivers of food security span the economic, social, and agronomic sector and the interactions within, and between, these sectors mean that the food security system is complex. To explore the effect of industrial crops on food security the systems thinking approach is used to aid in system understanding. The aim of this study is to use systems thinking to analyse the food security system in Tshaneni Swaziland, to build a conceptual model of the system using causal loop diagrams, and to build a fully executional computer-based simulation to model the system quantitatively. A review of the literature revealed system dynamics as the most suitable modelling methodology for this study. The model consists of six sub-models that represent the real system. The sub-models include economic, production, and consumption feedbacks at the household level, where both food crop and industrial crop cultivation is simulated. The model is driven by a combination of external drivers, such as environmental conditions, and internal drivers, such as human decisions. The amount of money and food (in calories) available to the household are used as the food security indicators. The model is run for five different scenarios covering a twenty-year period from 2016 to 2035. These are analysed in order to determine the impact of industrial crops, in this case sugarcane, on food security. Results show that household involvement in sugarcane leads to increased levels of food security, mainly because of an increase in money available and irrigation for food crop production. Education and occupation were additional factors found to play a major role in increasing food security. Scenarios that explored the impact of climate change and potential water scarcity revealed that households in Tshaneni, Swaziland remain vulnerable to drought in terms of food security. However, those households involved in industrial crop cultivation are less vulnerable to climatic conditions than households that farm only food crops. This is because cultivating industrial crops leads to increased access to irrigation, which is also used for small plots of food crops. Based on the findings of this research project, it is advocated that smallholder farmers engage in the cultivation of sugarcane, especially in the context of large state-supported projects that have significant private sector buy-in, such as that in Tshaneni. The study further provides recommendations to stakeholders and policymakers to continue to invest in the sugar cane industry to ensure a food secure future for Swaziland and its people. Benefits of system dynamics are provided and recommendations are made to future researchers attempting to improve this research.