Browsing by Author "Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    The analysis of the 2008 US financial crisis : an intervention approach
    (International Foundation for Research and Development, 2018) Makatjane, Katleho Daniel; Molefe, Edward Kagiso; Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum
    The current study investigates the impact of the 2008 US financial crises on the real exchange rate in South Africa. The data used in this empirical analysis is for the period from January 2000 to June 2017. The Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention charter was used to carry out the analysis. Results revealed that the financial crises period in South Africa occurred in March 2008 and significantly affected the exchange rate. Hence, the impact pattern was abrupt. Using the SARIMA model as a benchmark, four error metrics; to be precise mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean error (ME) and Mean percentage error (MPE) was used to assess the performance of the intervention model and SARIMA model. The results of the SARIMA intervention model produced better forecasts as compared to that one of SARIMA model.
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    The impact of policy uncertainty on macro-economy of developed and developing countries
    (International Foundation for Research and Development, 2018) Nyawo, Seabelo T.; Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum
    This paper investigates the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on Indian macroeconomic variables with a number of Structural VARs. This study models the economic policy uncertainty index as constructed by Baker et al. (2013). The study also uses a set of macroeconomic variables for India such as inflation, industrial production and nominal interest rate. The objective of the study is to identify the potential impacts of economic policy uncertainty shocks from the US economy to the Indian economy. According to the SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to the US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant decline in the Indian industrial production of -0.294% and in the Indian inflation of -0.032%. India shows to be resistant to US policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study finds that the contribution of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Indian macroeconomic variables is shown to be significantly larger than the one exerted by the Indian uncertainty shock.
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    The impact of short- term interest rates on bank funding costs
    (International Foundation for Research and Development, 2019) Nomsobo, Azasakhe Nkcubeko; Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum
    This study examines the impact of short- term interest rates on bank funding costs in South Africa. Literature suggests that rising short- term interest rates may cause similar financial crises experienced in 2007/08 (Bonner & Eijffinger, 2013; Turner, 2013; Saraç & Karagoz, 2016). It is vital to study short- term interest rates and bank funding costs in order to achieve financial stability. The study uses quarterly time series data for the period 2000 to 2014. To estimate the regression, the study uses the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) and the data is found stationary at first difference. The 3 months Johannesburg Interbank Agreed Rate (JIBAR) is used as a proxy for bank funding costs whilst the prime overdraft rate, 10 -year government bonds and capital ratio are used as proxies for short- term, long- term interest rates and bank capital, respectively. The results show a positive and significant long- term relationship between the variables. The results for prime overdraft rate, 10 -year government bonds and capital ratio conform to the apriori expectations. For GDP growth the results show a positive relationship which does not conform to apriori expectations. Using the variance decomposition, the study illustrates fluctuations in JIBAR was due to changes in its value and fluctuations in the prime rate are also due to JIBAR. The study presents policy options whereby regulatory efforts need to strengthen the capital buffers of banks to reduce bank funding costs and therefore reduce short- term interest rates imposed on borrowers.
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    Trends in foreign agricultural trade and its impact on households in South Africa
    (2020-08-19) Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum; Van Wyk, Bianca Flavia; Makatjane, Katleho Daniel
    This study examines the trends in foreign trade in agriculture focusing on imports and exports for different sub-sectors and the identity of agricultural trade flows with specific regions and countries. Secondly, to understand how agricultural imports and exports improve the living standards of households in South Africa. The study uses a quantitative research approach by analysing trade data from the South African Revenue Services (SARS) and household data from the World Bank and OECD. The threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model is employed to establish a nonlinear causal relationship. The Diks-Panchenko nonparametric causality test revealed no causal relationship between the foreign agricultural trade and household consumption and household income in South Africa. However, with the increase of exported agricultural goods from South Africa, there are many significant benefits to South African households.