Browsing by Author "Siebrits, Krige"

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    Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa
    (AOSIS Publishing, 2016) Calitz, Estian; Siebrits, Krige; Stuart, Ian
    The accuracy of the National Treasury's projections of GDP and key fiscal aggregates is comparable to that of the projections of private sector economists, other reputable organisations and the fiscal authorities of other countries. The errors in the projections of the National Treasury have nonetheless been substantial in some years, and have increased from 2000/01 to 2010/11. This paper argues that the credibility of fiscal policy would have been severely tested if the largest annual errors in respect of the various aggregates had coincided. Against this backdrop, the paper makes the case for structured bi-annual discussions of government’s forecasts during public parliamentary hearings as a mechanism for improving the accuracy and credibility of official projections. It also discusses the potential benefits for South Africa of two alternative mechanisms, namely fiscal councils and committees of independent experts.
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    The limits of laws : traffic law enforcement in South Africa
    (AOSIS, 2020-04) Du Plessis, Sophia; Jansen, Ada; Siebrits, Krige
    Background: The aim of many public policies is to change behaviour. Governments tend to rely on regulations, taxes and subsidies to effect such change. These measures, which affect agents’ economic incentives, have a mixed record. A key insight of the New Institutional Economics is that the efficacy of such formal institutions depends on the strength of their enforcement and the extent to which they are compatible with prevailing informal institutions. Aim: This article uses the road safety situation in South Africa as a case study to explore aspects of the relationships among formal institutions, law enforcement and informal institutions. Setting: South Africa has a strong suite of road safety laws but poor road safety outcomes. Methods: The article draws on ideas about the relationships between formal institutions, law enforcement and informal institutions to undertake a case study of the road safety situation in South Africa. Results: The article argues that improved law enforcement cannot fully solve the problem; complementary changes to the informal institutions shaping the behaviour of road users are essential. Conclusion: Institutional economists have to take a greater interest in the insights of research in behavioural economics, behavioural and cognitive science and other disciplines in order to provide useful advice in settings where such change is an important policy objective.
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    Reflections on the effectiveness of child support grants
    (African Sun Media, 2020) Siebrits, Krige
    South Africa’s unusually large social assistance system annually transfers some 3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to the poor as cash grants.1 The child support grant (CSG) programme is one of the cornerstones of this system. Government spending on this programme exceeds 1% of South Africa’s GDP, and, in March 2019, nearly 70% of the 17.8 million grants disbursed in South Africa were CSGs (South African Social Security Agency 2019:18). The premise of this chapter is that a humane society should maintain safety net schemes to meet the basic needs of children and other vulnerable persons. Given the extent of poverty in South Africa and its severe effects on large numbers of children, this premise implies that measures, such as the CSG programme, are essential. Yet the same factors that make such interventions essential also underscore the necessity of ensuring their effectiveness. An appropriate criterion for assessing the effectiveness of the CSG programme is the degree to which its benefits to children are maximised. The design and implementation of the programme, as well as the usage of the funds by households, all influence its efficacy. In turn, the choices that manifest in these aspects of the programme reflect the beliefs of society about its obligations to poor children, those of policymakers about the requisites and agency of the poor, and those of caregivers about the needs of children and the role of grant money within household budgets. The salience of choices rooted in beliefs imparts a strong ethical slant to attempts to assess the effectiveness of the CSG programme. The chapter proceeds with an overview of economic and social influences on the living conditions of South African children. This section highlights the high incidence of poverty in South Africa and its severe effects on children. Next, the chapter sketches the history of the CSG programme and outlines its main characteristics. A review of empirical research into the effectiveness of CSGs follows. This section also identifies limitations of the programme. Against this backdrop, the final section offers broad suggestions for improving the CSG programme itself and for enhancing its effectiveness by means of changes to other policies that affect the living conditions and future prospects of children.