Browsing by Author "Nel, David Mathys Christoffel"

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    The risk profile of wheat rotation systems in the Middle Swartland under Conservation Agriculture: A SDRF and SERF approach winter cereals crop rotation risk
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2022-04) Nel, David Mathys Christoffel; Hoffmann, Willem H.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics.
    ENGLISH SUMMARY : Wheat production in South Africa is largely driven by three of the country’s nine provinces, namely the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape and the summer rainfall regions of the Free State and Northern Cape. Conservation Agriculture (CA) is a comprehensive approach to sustainable farming to ensure food security and sustainability. There are three main conservation principles which govern CA namely minimum soil disturbance, permanent coverage of the soil and crop rotation. In 1996, the agricultural sector was deregulated and the Wheat Marketing Board was abolished. As a direct consequence of the deregulation of the agricultural sector, farmers were exposed to more volatile markets. This curated a more complex production system, wherein crop rotation in production systems needed to be considered and the complexity of decision making in cereal production areas in the Western Cape increased. The Langgewens Research Farm (LRF) were established in 1996. This was a long-term crop/pasture rotation trail. The aim of the project was to achieve the following objectives in the Swarland region: increase crop yield, increase protein and oilseed production, reduce input cost, increase diversification and improve financial stability. Limited research is available on the risk profile of the different rotation systems in the Swartland. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the risk profile of the eight rotation systems on Langgewens experimental farm in the Western Cape. The gross margin analysis of the eight rotation systems from 2002 up to and including 2020 was utilised for this purpose. The stochastic dominance with respect to a function (SDRF) and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function approach (SERF) was used to evaluate the risk profile according to a decision makers risk preference. Wheat is still the largest crop produced in the Swartland and the main aim of the Langgewens farm is to increase farmers profitability. The effect of previous year’s crop on the current year’s wheat production was also utilised on a two year basis. The SDRF results indicated that System H (McWMcsW) was the optimal rotation system for a risk neutral and a risk averse decision maker, with System E (MWMW) and System F (McWMcW) rotation following close behind. These findings were supported by the results reported using the SERF method under a negative exponential utility function as well as the stoplight determination. Hence, the McWMcsW rotation system was overall found to be the optimal rotation system, followed by the MWMW and the McWMcW system for all decision makers with an absolute risk aversion coefficient (ARAC) between 0 and 0.000781. The results from a two year cycle showed that planting wheat after medic/clover in rotation had the highest yield and greatest value per ton with the lowest total expenses. In a dry season, wheat yield (kg/mm) was the highest after canola or lupin was planted in rotation, whereas higher yields were seen after planting medic/clover in rotation during rainy seasons.