Browsing by Author "Liebhold, Andrew M."

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    Around the world in 500 years: Inter-regional spread of alien species over recent centuries
    (John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2021) Seebens, Hanno; Blackburn, Tim M.; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Orlova-Bienkowskaja, Marina; Pyšek, Petr; Schindler, Stefan; Essl, Franz
    Aim: The number of alien species has been increasing for centuries world-wide, but temporal changes in the dynamics of their inter-regional spread remain unclear. Here, we analyse changes in the rate and extent of inter-regional spread of alien species over time and how these dynamics vary among major taxonomic groups. Location: Global. Time period: 1500–2010. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants, mammals, birds, fishes, arthropods and other invertebrates. Methods: Our analysis is based on the Alien Species First Record Database, which comprises >60,000 entries describing the year when an alien species was first recorded in a region (mostly countries and large islands) where it later established as an alien species. Based on the number and distribution of first records, we calculated metrics of spread between regions, which we termed “inter-regional spread”, and conducted statistical analyses to assess variations over time and across taxonomic groups. Results: Almost all (>90%) species introduced before 1700 are found in more than one region today. Inter-regional spread often took centuries and is ongoing for many species. The intensity of inter-regional spread increased over time, with particularly steep increases after 1800. Rates of spread peaked for plants in the late 19th century, for birds and invertebrates in the late 20th century, and remained largely constant for mammals and fishes. Inter-regional spread for individual species showed hump-shaped temporal patterns, with the highest rates of spread at intermediate alien range sizes. Approximately 50% of widespread species showed signs of declines in spread rates. Main conclusions: Our results show that, although rates of spread have declined for many widespread species, for entire taxonomic groups they have tended to increase continuously over time. The large numbers of alien species that are currently observed in only a single region are anticipated to be found in many other regions in the future.
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    Options for reducing uncertainty in impact classification for alien species
    (2021) Clarke, David A.; Palmer, David J.; McGrannachan, Chris; Burgess, Treena I.; Chown, Steven L.; Clarke, Rohan H.; Kumschick, Sabrina; Lach, Lori; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Roy, Helen E.; Saunders, Manu E.; Yeates, David K.; Zalucki, Myron P.; McGeoch, Melodie A.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Impact assessment is an important and cost-effective tool for assisting in the identification and prioritization of invasive alien species. With the number of alien and invasive alien species expected to increase, reliance on impact assessment tools for the identification of species that pose the greatest threats will continue to grow. Given the importance of such assessments for management and resource allocation, it is critical to understand the uncertainty involved and what effect this may have on the outcome. Using an uncertainty typology and insects as a model taxon, we identified and classified the causes and types of uncertainty when performing impact assessments on alien species. We assessed 100 alien insect species across two rounds of assessments with each species independently assessed by two assessors. Agreement between assessors was relatively low for all three impact classification components (mechanism, severity, and confidence) after the first round of assessments. For the second round, we revised guidelines and gave assessors access to each other’s assessments which improved agreement by between 20% and 30% for impact mechanism, severity, and confidence. Of the 12 potential reasons for assessment discrepancies identified a priori, 11 were found to occur. The most frequent causes (and types) of uncertainty (i.e., differences between assessment outcomes for the same species) were as follows: incomplete information searches (systematic error), unclear mechanism and/or extent of impact (subjective judgment due to a lack of knowledge), and limitations of the assessment framework (context dependence). In response to these findings, we identify actions that may reduce uncertainty in the impact assessment process, particularly for assessing speciose taxa with diverse life histories such as Insects. Evidence of environmental impact was available for most insect species, and (of the non-random original subset of species assessed) 14 of those with evidence were identified as high impact species (with either major or massive impact). Although uncertainty in risk assessment, including impact assessments, can never be eliminated, identifying, and communicating its cause and variety is a first step toward its reduction and a more reliable assessment outcome, regardless of the taxa being assessed.
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    Plant diversity drives global patterns of insect invasions
    (Nature Research, 2018) Liebhold, Andrew M.; Yamanaka, Takehiko; Roques, Alain; Augustin, Sylvie; Chown, Steven L.; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.; Pysek, Petr
    During the last two centuries, thousands of insect species have been transported (largely inadvertently) and established outside of their native ranges worldwide, some with catastrophic ecological and economic impacts. Global variation in numbers of invading species depends on geographic variation in propagule pressure and heterogeneity of environmental resistance to invasions. Elton’s diversity-invasibility hypothesis, proposed over sixty years ago, has been widely explored for plants but little is known on how biodiversity affects insect invasions. Here we use species inventories from 44 land areas, ranging from small oceanic islands to entire continents in various world regions, to show that numbers of established insect species are primarily driven by diversity of plants, with both native and non-native plant species richness being the strongest predictor of insect invasions. We find that at large spatial scales, plant diversity directly explains variation in non-native insect species richness among world regions, while geographic factors such as land area, climate and insularity largely affect insect invasions indirectly via their effects on local plant richness.
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    Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2020) Seebens, Hanno; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Capinha, Cesar; Dawson, Wayne; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Kuhn, Ingolf; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Lenzner, Bernd; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Pattison, Zarah; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Winter, Marten; Essl, Franz
    Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business‐as‐usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back‐casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon–continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
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    Scientists’ warning on invasive alien species
    (Wiley, 2019) Pysek, Petr; Hulme, Philip E.; Simberloff, Dan; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Carlton, James T.; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Genovesi, Piero; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kühn, Ingolf; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Mandrak, Nicholas E.; Meyerson, Laura A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Pergl, Jan; Roy, Helen E.; Seebens, Hanno; Van Kleunen, Mark; Vila, Montserrat; Wingfield, Michael J.; Richardson, David M.
    Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long-term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long-term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.