Browsing by Author "Havemann, Roy Charles"

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    The demand for labour in South Africa : a theoretical and empirical approach
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004-04) Havemann, Roy Charles; Van der Berg, Servaas; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nearly five million South Africans were unemployed in 2002 and creating employment opportunities is a difficult challenge. Before this issue can be tackled, however, it is critical to understand the problem. This thesis opts to contribute to this understanding by considering aspects around the demand for labour. The analysis considers a selection of the theoretical literature on the demand for labour, estimates key labour market parameters and then undertakes a number of simulations using a structural model. There are many conflicting paradigms that can be used to analyse the issue: microeconomic versus macroeconomic; neoclassical versus structuralist; theoretical versus empirical and so forth. Some of these paradigms are considered as part of the attempt to build an empirical framework that can be used to analyse the issue. The empirical results of the thesis suggest that: • Higher real wages lead to lowering of the quantity demanded of labour. The thesis estimates an economy-wide wage elasticity of employment of approximately -0,67; • Higher output stimulates the demand for labour. The single equation estimate of the employment elasticity of output is between 0,66 and 0,75, whilst the economy-wide estimate is approximately 1,1. The latter takes into account feedback effects from other macroeconomic variables, such as productivity and wages; • There is little evidence to show that the efficiency wage hypothesis holds - higher productivity leads to higher wages, but the converse is not true; • Union power increases real wages, indirectly leading to a fall in the demand for labour. This suggests that the labour market has insiders and outsiders; and • The relative price of labour is also important, with a fall in the cost of capital leading to a decrease in the demand for labour. Simulations suggest that job creation can be achieved through policies that encourage wage moderation and increase economic growth. There is also a potential role, albeit limited, for fiscal incentives such as a mooted earned income tax credit.
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    Lessons from South African bank failures 2002 to 2014
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-04) Havemann, Roy Charles; Du Plessis, S. A.; Fourie, J.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
    ENGLISH SUMMARY : This study draws lessons from recent South African financial history. The period covers the 2002/3 small bank crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis and the collapse of African Bank in 2014. During the small bank crisis, twelve banks experienced runs and a further ten deregistered. In chapter 2, I use a monthly bank-level data set to show that the failing banks were all solvent, but that their funding structure made them fragile and susceptible to a confidence shock. The central bank did not intervene to provide liquidity to the affected banks, worsening the crisis. The lessons are that bank failures can impose both short- and long-term economic costs, monetary policy can have financial stability implications, and that a credible and clear bank resolution strategy is critical. South Africa did not experience any bank failures during the 2008 global financial crisis period. In chapter 3, I show that this is partly because the banking regulator increased capital adequacy ratios during the pre-crisis period, in response to rapid credit growth. The lesson is that macroprudential tools can reduce credit growth and dampen overheating financial cycles. In chapter 4, the successful bail-in of creditors in African Bank during 2014 provides lessons on the intended and unintended consequences of post-global financial crisis bank resolution tools. Money-market funds ‘broke the buck’, triggering significant redemptions and some financial spillovers. The authorities required discretionary liquidity restrictions and market-making facilities. The lesson is that – correctly applied – new resolution tools can support the sustainable restructuring of a failing bank, reduce financial spillovers, and minimise taxpayers losses. The conclusion points to broader lessons from the whole period, particularly the primary importance of a coordinated monetary and financial stability policy framework.