Browsing by Author "Greyling, Jan C."

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    Policy, production, and productivity : spatial dynamics in the South African maize industry during the 20th century
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-04) Greyling, Jan C.; Vink, Nick; Pardey, Phillip; Bolt, Jutta; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics.
    ENGLISH SUMMARY : This dissertation investigates the way distortionary agricultural policies, responding to political tensions during South Africa’s structural transformation, also distorted the location of production. Taking the example of maize, it explores the interplay between changes in policy, production and productivity, and changes in the spatial footprint of production. The study covers more than a century (1904–2015), so as to include all the agricultural policy phases typical of an economy undergoing structural transformation. It finds that changes in agricultural policy after the mid-1930s, enacted in response to the political tensions that emanated from the converging and diverging interests of groups within the mining and agricultural sectors, are reflected in changes in maize production and prices. With the implementation of supportive policies, production expanded into areas previously supporting little maize, thereby undermining environment-based comparative advantages of production. Using spatial indexes, the study estimates that at its peak this policy-induced shift in the location of production reduced productivity by between 7.9 and 15.3 per cent. The dismantling of supportive policy during the 1980s and 90s coincided with the removal of land from maize production by farmers. By 2015 the area planted to maize had reverted back to the level it had reached almost 80 years earlier in 1935, before supportive measures were implemented. But spatial inefficiency partly persisted because some production continued in drier, lower-yielding regions. After the distortionary policies were removed, some of the spatial distortion remained, despite the lower productivity, because of region-specific investments in improving plant material, farming practices and infrastructure. So, while some of South Africa’s maize production ended up in the wrong places, technological improvements eventually made the wrong places more right. Despite the misguided policies, drought-focused research-and-development investment in technologies such as hybrid maize generated a sequence of innovations which more than quadrupled the maize yield per unit of rainfall between 1950 and 1993. The South African case serves to show that distortionary policies carry both short- and long-term costs. This is particularly relevant to sub-Saharan Africa, several of whose countries have pursued or are still pursuing various forms of maize and other agricultural intervention. The case also offers an example of successful adaptation to adverse weather conditions and suggests that a change in the location of production can serve as a proxy for climate change. Three new historical datasets for the period were created specifically for this study: maize price, trade and production data; hybrid adoption, replacement and yield trial data; and district-level maize output and area planted data compiled from 17 digitised agricultural censuses, standardised to current spatial boundaries. Although the datasets are limited to maize, the procedures devised to construct them can be used by future researchers to extend the analysis to other crops and regions.
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    The role of the agricultural sector in the South African economy
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012-12) Greyling, Jan C.; Vink, Nick; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The importance of the agricultural sector in the South African economy is often stressed by farmers and agricultural industry organisations. The reality, however, is that the sector has constituted less than 3% of the economy since 2005 (DAS, 2012). It is therefore important that the current role of the agricultural sector in the South African economy is investigated. This has been the subject of a number of studies. The most comprehensive study to date was undertaken by Brand (1969) within the well-known framework of Johnston and Mellor (1961). A number of less comprehensive studies have followed. This is the second comprehensive analysis of the role of the agricultural sector in the South African economy. This study reapplies Brand’s (1969) framework to the data currently available. The results are contrasted with those obtained by Brand (1969) and other authors, in order to establish whether, and if so how, the role of the sector has changed in the last 50 years. The results obtained are then incorporated into policy suggestions. The findings of this thesis are, firstly, that the agricultural sector has been unable to meet the demand for the main food items consumed domestically since 2000. This, however, did not result in the predicted rapid increase in food and general inflation. Secondly, agricultural exports have not played a growth-leading, but rather a balancing role in economic development, because the sector maintained a positive trade balance during the full period of analysis. Thirdly, the sector has released labour to the rest of the economy since 1962, thereby fulfilling what is seen as a requirement by the economic development literature. Fourthly, the sector has probably made a net transfer of capital to the rest of the economy since the mid-2000s. Lastly, the agricultural sector plus the sectors with which it has the strongest linkages represented around 7% of the economy in 2010. This study concurs with Brand’s (1969) main conclusion that the South African agricultural sector does not play a growth-leading or initiating role in the economy, but rather a growth-permissive role. This is due to the sector’s relatively small quantitative significance in the economy, which limits the growth impact of agricultural exports, capital transfers from the sector and linkages with the rest of the economy. The sector plays a growth-enabling role, however, by supplying food to consumers at the lowest possible price - either by producing it domestically, or by affording food imports with the exchange earned through the export of agricultural produce. In addition, the sector has an important role in providing employment, especially in rural areas. It is recommended that the current agricultural marketing and international trade policy framework, which is conducive to international trade and limits market distortions, is retained. The sector has the potential, given the adoption of the required policy, to create employment by virtue of its relatively high labour intensity and the existence of some complementarities between capital and labour in the sector. Also, the competiveness of the sector should be increased by means of an investment in infrastructure.
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    Towards a common understanding of 'emerging farmer' in a South African context using data from a survey of three district municipalities in the Eastern Cape Province
    (South African Society of Agricultural Extension, 2019-01) Zantsi, Siphe; Greyling, Jan C.; Vink, N.
    The objective of this study was to improve our understanding of the diversity among emerging smallholders using various commonly used indicators. These were reviewed and applied to a sample of 379 emerging smallholders situated in three major smallholding districts within the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. It was found that the typical emerging farmer has the following profile: He is black, situated in a former homeland and is 58 years old. The typical farmer cultivates field crops as a secondary source of food and income, but keeps livestock as primary and secondary sources of income. The average emerging smallholder mostly grows maize for own consumption given a crop commercialisation index (CCI) of 0.66 and sells a greater portion of his cabbage and potatoes given CCIs of 0.73 and 0.83 respectively. The average emerging farmer earns a net income of R26 600 per year, but there is an income inequality, since the most successful farmer earns 26.7 times the average income. This translates to a Ghini coefficient of 0.48, which is high by international standards, but low compared to the South African average of 63.1. When speaking to fellow farmers, it was found that 78% of them feel constrained by farming in a homeland, but only 72% would be willing to move from their homeland, with most (45%) saying that they would only do so if they were provided with sufficient government support.