Browsing by Author "Dlamini, Sicelo S."

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    The global burden of tuberculous meningitis in adults : a modelling study
    (Public Library of Science, 2021-12) Dodd, Peter J.; Osman, Muhammad; Cresswell, Fiona V.; Stadelman, Anna M.; Lan, Nguyen Huu; Thuong, Nguyen Thuy Thuong; Muzyamba, Morris; Glaser, Lisa; Dlamini, Sicelo S.; Seddon, James A.
    Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most lethal form of tuberculosis. The incidence and mortality of TBM is unknown due to diagnostic challenges and limited disaggregated reporting of treated TBM by existing surveillance systems. We aimed to estimate the incidence and mortality of TBM in adults (15+ years) globally. Using national surveillance data from Brazil, South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and Vietnam, we estimated the fraction of reported tuberculosis that is TBM, and the case fatality ratios for treated TBM in each of these countries. We adjusted these estimates according to findings from a systematic review and meta-analysis and applied them to World Health Organization tuberculosis notifications and estimates to model the global TBM incidence and mortality. Assuming the case detection ratio (CDR) for TBM was the same as all TB, we estimated that in 2019, 164,000 (95% UI; 129,000–199,000) adults developed TBM globally; 23% were among people living with HIV. Almost 60% of incident TBM occurred in males and 20% were in adults 25–34 years old. 70% of global TBM incidence occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa. We estimated that 78,200 (95% UI; 52,300–104,000) adults died of TBM in 2019, representing 48% of incident TBM. TBM case fatality in those treated was on average 27%. Sensitivity analysis assuming improved detection of TBM compared to other forms of TB (CDR odds ratio of 2) reduced estimated global mortality to 54,900 (95% UI; 32,200–77,700); assuming instead worse detection for TBM (CDR odds ratio of 0.5) increased estimated mortality to 125,000 (95% UI; 88,800–161,000). Our results highlight the need for improved routine TBM monitoring, especially in high burden countries. Reducing TBM incidence and mortality will be necessary to achieve the End TB Strategy targets.
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    Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register
    (Nature, 2021-08) Osman, Muhammad; Van Schalkwyk, Cari; Naidoo, Pren; Seddon, James A.; Dunbare, Rory; Dlamini, Sicelo S.; Welte, Alex; Hesseling, Anneke C.; Claassens, Mareli M.
    In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80–0.83). The highest SMR was in 15–24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15–24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.