Doctoral Degrees (Business Management)

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Browsing Doctoral Degrees (Business Management) by Author "Bloom, Jonathan,1976-"

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    The behaviour of financial ratios for capital intensive and labour intensive enterprises during an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001-04) Bloom, Jonathan,1976-; Lambrechts, I. J.; Le Roux, N. J.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Business management.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Financial performance ratios are generally based on a set of financial statements without taking cognisance of other factors that could affect the measurement of performance. The behaviour of financial performance indicators during an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle, together with the nature and scope of an enterprise's activities may have an effect on the manner in which financial performance indicators are used by an enterprise. The question may arise whether or not a ratio's behaviour for capital intensive (CI) and labour intensive (LI) enterprises could capture the essence of external factors such as an upswing or decline in the economic cycle as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GOP). In this study an upswing phase (1987-1989) of three years and a decline phase (1990-1992) of three years have been selected after an analysis of the economic cycle over the period 1970 to 1996. The distinction between the capital and labour intensity of an enterprise is based on an analysis of the total assets, fixed assets and number of employees of industrial enterprises listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The initially selected 62 financial performance indicators categorised under profitability, growth, cash flow, value-added and inflation-adjusted ratios are calculated for each enterprise of the CI (33) and LI (36) groups and for each year of the research period. The primary objectives of the research are: • To distinguish between the CI and LI nature of enterprises listed in the industrial sector of the JSE by using measures of capital and labour intensity; • To obtain patterns and identify differences in the behaviour of the selected financial indicators between CI and LI enterprises during an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle, as measured by the GOP; • To analyse and investigate patterns and differences to determine whether or not there is specific justification(s) for the behaviour exhibited by the CI and LI enterprises for a particular ratio during either or both the upswing and decline phases of the economic cycle; • To identify key financial indicators, which could possibly be used by CI and LI enterprises to forecast financial performance and to identify lead and lag patterns in the economic cycle. An elaborate statistical analysis is conducted of the ratios to satisfy the objectives stipulated above. The first part of the analysis is based on a single representative measure, which represents an average of the three-year upswing and three-year decline phases respectively. Mean and median values are calculated for the CI and LI enterprises for both the upswing and decline phases. A profile analysis based on Hotelling's T2 test is used for the analysis of ratios that exhibit approximate normal distributions. Non-parametric tests, Mann-Whitney Utest and Wilcoxon matched-pairs test, are used for the analysis of ratios that do not indicate approximately normal distributions. The second part of the study focuses on an analysis of the ratios based on the individual years of the research period. The statistical techniques used for the analysis of the ratios based on a single representative measure are also used in the analysis of the ratios based on the individual years. The limitations identified during the analysis based on a single representative measure are addressed to a large extent in this section of the statistical analysis. By analysing the mean and median values based on the individual years, it is possible to classify the ratios as one of five pattern groups exhibited by the CI and LI enterprises, i.e. normal expected, lag, lead, cyclical and mixed. The patterns of the various ratios within each of the pattern groups are also analysed from a financial management perspective. The findings of the study confirm the stated hypothesis that there are differences in the behaviour of financial indicators based on a single representative measure and over the individual years of the research period between CI and LI enterprises during either or both an upswing and decline phase of the economic cycle. Furthermore, the analysis highlights several ratios based on a single representative measure that could not be used universally by all enterprises to measure financial performance and only during either an upswing or decline phase of the economic cycle. Ratios which are part of this category include return on total net assets (before tax), return on total net operating assets, dividend per share, sales to total net assets and interest-bearing debt to total shareholders' interest. The results based on the individual years of the analysis indicate that a large number of ratios exhibit normal expected patterns. Among the traditional profitability indicators, 80% exhibit normal expected patterns for the CI and LI enterprises during the upswing and decline phases. Traditional profitability ratios such as return on total net assets, return on net operating assets, return on total shareholders' interest and the value-creation ratio, economic value added form part of the normal expected group of patterns. All the inflation-adjusted ratios indicate normal expected patterns. These ratios indicate relative stability over the economic cycle and may be appropriate for the purposes of medium- and long-term financial forecasting as they follow the trade cycle. Approximately 39% of the ratios indicate mixed patterns, i.e. different patterns for the CI and LI enterprises. The growth in attributable earnings, cash flow to interest payments, market value of equity to book value of equity and market value added ratios indicate behaviour patterns for the CI and LI enterprises which may lead the economic cycle. These ratios may indicate the possibility of anticipating upswing and decline phases in the economic cycle. The relevance of the results for a CI enterprise alludes to the use of more debt financing during the decline phase to cover costs and working capital requirements when demand for products and services decreases as a result of a slow-down in the economy. The pattern exhibited by EPS may allude to an anticipated upswing phase in the economic cycle. An increase in the cash flow to interest payments ratio during the decline phase may indicate an imminent change in the cycle of the economy. The relevance of the results for LI enterprises indicates that an upswing in the economic cycle may be anticipated by an increase in the working capital to operating cash flow ratio. More debt financing is used during the upswing period, which may be attributed to greater demand and consequently results in a higher gearing position for LI enterprises. An increase in the cash flow to interest payments ratio during the decline phase may indicate an imminent upswing in the economic cycle. Several limitations of the study include the use of a single upswing and decline phase to represent the movements of the economic cycle; the approach used to distinguish between the CI and LI enterprises requires further analysis, and the large number of ratios could in future research be limited to several indicators. The more important recommendations of the study include the use of multiple upswing and decline phases of the economic cycle; more research into the lags and leads exhibited by the CI and LI enterprises for specific ratios should be conducted; the possibility of adopting a different approach to distinguish between CI and LI enterprises could also be considered; and further research is required to ascertain the reliability of indicators that highlight lead patterns for forecasting an upswing or decline phase in the economic cycle.