Doctoral Degrees (Logistics)

Permanent URI for this collection

https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/726

Browse

Browsing Doctoral Degrees (Logistics) by Author "Botes, Francois Jacobus"

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    A model to forecast the impact of road accessibility on the economic development potential of industrial land in urban areas
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003) Botes, Francois Jacobus; Pienaar, W. J.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The dissertation firstly outlines the findings of recent studies that have recorded the relationship between transport and economic development. This includes the assessment of a number of economic evaluation techniques that are available to predict the impact of improvements in transport on economic development. An historic overview is provided of the role that transport has played in the development of Cape Town. Due to the fact that the phases of development followed international development trends, it is concluded that development in Cape Town will follow the global trend. A number of economic growth scenarios are developed for Cape Town to assess how the City will be able to cope with the socio-demographic challenges facing it in the next century. The relationship between land price and the economic development potential of land is outlined, as are the factors that determine industrial land price, namely the demand and supply of industrial land. The process of determining the economic value of industrial land is described. This includes the collection and analysis of occupation rent of industrial townships in Cape Town, the calculation of property values and the calculation of the shadow price of land. A procedure of determining accessibility to industrial townships in Cape Town was developed. Firstly, accessibility was defined in broad terms. This was followed by a discussion of each of the elements of accessibility namely proximity, access and mobility in order to understand the factors that may impact on the level of accessibility. Finally, the level of accessibility is quantified in terms of generalised cost. A regression analysis was undertaken to establish a statistical relationship between the economic value of industrial land and accessibility to the industrial townships. The development of a numerical model was based on the regression analyses to forecast changes in industrial land price given a change in accessibility. The model was then tested on a case study. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: (a) The accessibility of industrial land in Cape Town is linked closely to its CSD I Port (it was not possible to separate the CSD and the port), which is typical of a monocentric city structure. (b) There is a positive, significant, quantifiable relationship between accessibility as quantified by means of generalised cost and the economic value of industrial land, which was calculated by means of the shadow price technique. (c) There are a number of conditions that should be met for an increase in local industrial production potential to be translated into an equal amount of economic output.