Department of Industrial Engineering

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Browsing Department of Industrial Engineering by Author "Adam, Felix Martin"

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    Drivers of violent property crime in South Africa: a system dynamics model focussing on education- and income inequality
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-03) Adam, Felix Martin; Grobbelaar, Sara S.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Crime statistics released by the South African Police Service (SAPS) indicate that the total number of annually reported crimes decreased steadily between 2008 and 2019. However, annual reported robberies have been steadily increasing over the same period. This indicates that South Africa’s crime prevention strategies are effectively reducing certain types of crime in the country. Robbery prevention strategies, however, still require further development.This study therefore investigates drivers of robbery, where they form part of violent property crime, by means of a system dynamics methodology to aid the decision-making process for South African robbery prevention strategy development. This study is aligned with the aims of the 2030 National Development Plan (NDP) and conducted in the context of South African education-and income inequality. A scopingliterature review was conducted to gain perspective on mathematical models that had been developed by previous crime-related studies. The results of the review indicate a lack of literature concerned with rigorously validated system dynamics models studying robbery within the South African context.Additionally, a conceptual literature review was conductedto identifydrivers of robberyin South Africa, as well as criminological theory relating to these.The reviewed literature suggests that inequality, one of the sustaining factors of the South African culture of crime and violence, is arguably the core problem of violent crime in South Africa. Among other inequalities, income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, has been shown to be especially high in South Africa. Literature investigating the causes of South Africa’s high income-inequality suggests that unequal education levels among citizens is one of the major causes of income-inequality. Researchers seeking empirical evidence for criminological theories that advocate the relationship between inequality and crime have found some support for their hypotheses, but these relationships are generally weak. However, researchers who sought evidence for this relationship without considering the specific hypotheses of these criminological theories found stronger support, even in the South African context. A dynamic hypothesis, in the form of a system dynamics simulation model was then developed from the arguments found through the conceptual review. The model focuses on relationships between education inequality, income inequality, incidents of robbery and a culture of crime and violence. These relationships are partially based on arguments of general strain theory, social learning theory, differential association theory and routine activity theory. The model was evaluated with validation tests and it was concluded that the model is appropriate for its intended purpose. Several scenarios aimed at reducing South African robbery through increased education levels, were then simulated by the model.Overall, the simulation results suggest that a reduction of robbery incidents through improvementof South African education levelswill require a long time to produce a significanteffect. However, the results do suggest that such interventions also generate long-lasting effects which consequently would require a long time to reverse. Furthermore, the results indicate that combinations of interventions generate stronger effects than the sum of effects produced by interventions applied in isolation.