University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB)

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Browsing University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB) by browse.metadata.advisor "Biekpe, Nicholas"

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    The efficiency of African stock markets : a comparative analysis
    (Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2006-03) Mlambo, Chipo; Biekpe, Nicholas; Smit, Eon v.d. M.; University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates whether any exploitable pauems exist in a sample of ten African stock markets that could lead to abnonnal gains. Southern Africa is represented by Botswana, Namibia. Mauritius and Zimbabwe, East Africa by Kenya, West Africa by Ghana and the BRVM, and North Africa by Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Such evidence, if it exists, provides ground for refutation of the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EM H) as defined by Farna (1965. 1970). The thesis is predominantly empirical, but also provides an overview of African stock markets, the theoretical framework on which the study is based and the impact of the advancement in information technology on market efficiency. The results show that the distribution of stock returns on African stock markets is not normal, and that the deviation from normality is significantly pronounced with almost all the stocks rejecting nonnality using the Kolmogorov-Smimov test at the I % level of significance. The stock price behaviour of the abovementioned stock markets is investigated by testing the random walk hypothesis using the simple serial correlation and runs tests. The investigation is done using returns calculated on a trade-to-trade basis and adjusted for interval variability by weighting each trade-to-trade return by the number of days between trades. While the first part of this analysis only includes the markets on which dividend information could be obtained, the second part includes all the ten markets with returns referring to capital gains. However, it is shown that dividend information does not have a serious impact on the results. While the majority of stocks, especially those for Mauritius and Ghana, reject the random walk hypothesis, only Namibia, Kenya and Zimbabwe, can be said to be weak form efficient. While thin trading is known to cause econometric and statistical problems in empirical tests, thin trading has been taken as given in most studies. In this thesis, the seriousness of thin trading on African stock markets and its implications for efficiency testing is empirically investigated. A comparison of the random walk test results when returns are calculated normally and when the trade-to-trade approach and its variant, the adjusted trade-la-trade approach, are used is carried out. It is found that thin trading is indeed a severe problem on African markets and that there are some differences in the random walk results due to the different methods used to calculate returns. Investigating in-sample predictability using linear models appears to be the norm in most tests of the EMH. This thesis argues that the return-generating process may not be linear and if that is the case, the nonlinear models may outperform the linear models in out-of-sample forecasting. The random walk is considered a true description of stock price behaviour only if it is not outperformed by any of the alternative models in forecasting stock prices out-of-sample. This is empirically tested using the indices data of the African stock markets in the sample. It is found that alternative models, in most instances, outperform the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting. The random walk results are substantiated by the results on seasonal patterns and other anomalies to the efficient market hypothesis such as the finn size and price earnings (PIE) effects. Size and PIE ratios have been identified as significant predictors of stock returns in other markets. In particular, it has been suggested that small-size firm portfolios outperform large-size finn portfolios and that low PIE firm portfolios outperform high PIE firm portfolios. The size and PIE effects found in this thesis are mostly exactly the opposite of those hypothesised in the literature. The existence of seasonal patterns contradicts the statement that stock prices behave in a random manner. This phenomenon is investigated on African stock markets using indices returns. The study benchmarks the findings with those of South Africa's Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Securities Exchange; other emerging markets, namely Brazil, Malaysia, Poland, Slovenia and Finland; and developed markets, such as the United States of America (U.S.), Australia and New Zealand. Seasonal effects are observed on some, but not all African stock markets and in most cases the patterns observed are different from those observed on stock markets elsewhere.
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    Measuring the barriers to investment in emerging economies : the case of some African countries
    (2010-12) Korutaro, Birungi; Biekpe, Nicholas; University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation is made up of stand-alone essays on the determinants of the investment climate in emerging market economies. Chapter One presents the purpose of this study, the significance of the research to policy makers, researchers and investors and the limitations of the research. Chapter Two investigates empirically whether business regulations, as measured by the „Doing Business‟ indicators, have an impact on investment in 29 emerging market economies in Africa, Asia, Latin America and emerging Europe. The results show that secure property rights and the level of business entry regulation influence the investment climate in these economies. In addition, efficiency of the judicial system, investor protection and the flexibility of employment regulation were found to be insignificant determinants of investment. Chapter Three explores the effect of business regulation on stock market liquidity, using data from a selection of 15 stock markets in Africa. The results from the panel data analysis show that the degree of business regulation does not influence stock liquidity. However, the results confirm that greater protection of minority share-holders' rights, as well as lender and better collateral and bankruptcy laws enhance stock market liquidity. There was anecdotal evidence to suggest that improved judicial efficiency enhances stock market liquidity. The legal origin was found to be significant in explaining the differences in the legal systems of these countries. Countries that have adopted French legal traditions were found to have less active stock markets and less investor and property rights protection compared to countries that have adopted English legal traditions. Chapter Four investigates the effect of the level of business regulation, infrastructure and political environment on investment in 29 African countries. The results provide evidence to show that lower levels of business regulation, less corruption and a stable political environment are important in enhancing investment. The final essay examines the effect of business regulation and geography on investment in a sample of 37 countries in Africa. The results show that more secure property rights and fewer import and export regulations have a significantly positive effect on private investment. In addition, being landlocked and distant from the sea has a negative effect on investment. Furthermore, the findings revealed that property rights protection in landlocked economies is not significantly different from that in coastal economies. In all the studies, the legal origin was found to be significant in explaining cross-country differences in the legal systems of the selected countries. These findings have important implications for policy makers, multi-lateral organisations and investors.